Climate Models Fail

From the Financial Post:

The two models being used for a government report again made diametrically opposite predictions. In region after region, if one model predicted a tendency toward more flooding, the other tended to predict drying.

I think that’s the point, personally. That way no matter what happens the advocates can say they were right.

in 2008 and 2010, a team of hydrologists at the National Technical University of Athens published a pair of studies comparing long-term (100-year) temperature and precipitation trends in a total of 55 locations around the world to model projections. The models performed quite poorly at the annual level, which was not surprising. What was more surprising was that they also did poorly even when averaged up to the 30-year scale, which is typically assumed to be the level they work best at. They also did no better over larger and larger regional scales. The authors concluded that there is no basis for the claim that climate models are well-suited for long-term predictions over large regions.

Today… TODAY at lunch a liberal buddy explained that Global Warming had been proved and to question it was absurd. Even as evidence continues to mount that the models are fraud, the science is politicized and conclusions, which have been pre-purchased with grants, are just plain wrong. Meanwhile the dire predictions of impending climate disaster continue to be pushed farther and farther away. In the 90’s,we were supposed to see impacts by 2000. That date passed so then it was 2015. Now, it’s 2012 and so they’ve gotten smart and moved it to 2100, when most of us will be dead.

It reminds me of a classic Lindzen quote:

“Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century’s developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age.”

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