Over the weekend I posted some comments on an article Katy Grimes posted at Cal Watchdog. There was a line in particular that has been itching at me ever since:
While the budget has been declared as balanced, California is starting off the new budget year with a $63 billion deficit, according to one financial analyst I spoke with.
It’s not that the number isn’t possible, but it’s monstrous considering the General Fund budget this year is $91 billion and the total budget is $141b. $63b is a catastrophic number for a deficit. So I assume it’s a debt figure and am contacting Grimes to clarify and will post a follow-up after I hear from her.
[Added:] In the meantime, in an unusual coincidence, the article itself is now returning a “404 Not Found” error.
[Added II:] I received an error from the Cal Watchdog mail servers: “The e-mail message could not be delivered because the user’s mailfolder is full.” I have sent follow-up messages to the Contributing and Managing Editors.
[Added III:] Curious: The Google Cache of the article does not include the paragraph cited above.
[Added IV:] The article has reappeared under a new link and appears to be complete, including the paragraph cited above. So now we’re only waiting for clarification of the “$63b deficit” number.
[Added V:] Katy Grimes responds in the comments (Thank you Katy). The article has been edited for clarity.
Mr. Chipmunk –
My apologies for the returned email from my CalWatchdog account. My company recently made server changes, and my email account has not worked since. I’m not sure why your link got an “error message” – the story has not been altered or pulled down since it was posted.
As for the $63 billion figure, this number comes from Capitol fiscal staff based on deferrals, fund shifts, offsets and loans, as well as the budget deficit itself. I should have said “debt,” not “deficit” as it is a calculation based on debt, not including pension debt.
I am told that Gov. Brown and Democrats greatly understate the state’s debt and obfuscate, hiding much of the debt behind things like offsets, fund shifts and deferrals, as well as unrealistic revenue expectations. Added to this is the Legislature’s failure to make cuts, while increasing education spending.
The Gov understated the deficit in the January 2012 budget so much, by the time the May revise came out, it had grown significantly.
2012-13 budget shows that by 2015-16, General Fund spending is expected to grow 28.8 percent. Since 2007-08, state spending is up more than $30 billion.
Katy